I know I start WAY too many of my pieces this way, but hell week is coming up. Four exams in five days after which I will drown myself in alcohol, FIFA 16 and possibly women with low standards.
For now, I bring this to you: Chris Weidman has GoAT potential. The quality of his opposition is mind boggling.
He has two wins over Anderson Silva, and while the finishes were unexpected it was clear that his style had utterly flummoxed the middleweight legend. He managed to cut off the ring and brutalize Lyoto Machida for three and a half rounds. He survived a Vitor Belfort flurry before taking him down and scoring a first round finish. In the wings waits Luke Rockhold and Jacare Souza who have been obliterating high caliber opponents left and right.
If he beats those last two, Weidman will have beaten the five greatest middleweights ever. Rich Franklin, Yushin Okami, Frank Shamrock, Nate Marquardt and even Dan Henderson (sorry Dan!) don’t have squat compared to that murderer’s row.
So today I’m going to ask the all-important question: What does it take to beat this guy?
1) Body Work
Chris Weidman is an enormous middleweight. There’s a reason that him going up to 205 to fight Jon Jones (as much of a mismatch as that may be) doesn’t seem so far-fetched. But cutting weight always has a detrimental effect on anyone’s gas tank.
While Weidman won a convincing decision against Machida, the act of constantly shifting to cut off the Dragon and eating the occasional body kick visibly tired him in the later rounds. Soon Machida was able to march forward and ring his bell with several large punches in scenarios where he’d be worried about getting clinched and taken down.
It bears saying that the fighter who gave the best match to Weidman prior to his title reign was Alessio Sakara, a middling fighter who nonetheless has a dedicated body attack which clearly bothered the middleweight juggernaut.
Yes, Weidman took the fight on short notice but the fact that a few well placed body punches did more than any shot he took to the head speaks volumes. It’s easier said than done, but a fighter committed to a mixed level attack could wear Weidman down sooner and nullify his edge in athleticism.
2) Ground Defense
Weidman built on a wrestling base but we rarely see it in action. Mostly because, as a brilliant tactician, he uses the mere threat of his wrestling to change opponents’ game plans rather than going for takedowns willy-nilly.
That being said, no one has tested his ground control. Weidman managed ground Machida for extended periods of time but as I’ve mentioned previously the ex-champion has never been good at getting back to his feet once he’s down. On the other hand, Anderson Silva was able to get back up to his feet after being taken down in the first round of their first fight with little trouble.
With the exception of his domination of Vitor Belfort on the ground, Weidman seems content to use his ground control to score points rather and wear his opponents down rather than finishing them outright.
Ideally a fighter who can repeatedly get up or attack Weidman on the ground won’t have to worry about his takedowns and can truly strike, an area in which I don’t believe the champion has ever truly been tested.
3) Hand Speed
When Weidman covered up against Machida’s final, furious flurry people were divided.
On the one hand, it looked Weidman was getting lit up by Machida’s combination of punches, knees and elbows with no answer. On the other hand, it was round 5 and Weidman clearly had the decision, so it’s quite possible he took his foot off the gas and felt no need to throw back.
But then the same exact thing happened against Vitor Belfort; the “Phenom” connected, swarmed and had Weidman in trouble. Belfort’s tendency to throw nothing but punches to the head and gas himself doing so essentially saved the champion, but there was no question that Weidman seemed to really struggle defensively in the position.
See Weidman’s elite striking is a result of his technique entirely; he has fantastic footwork and spacing and he he throws his smooth and fluid strikes with almost no telegraph on them. It’s the reason why Anderson Silva, who made far faster fighters like Marquardt and Belfort look silly, found himself getting popped cleanly in both contests.
But in the rare occasion in which the fight devolves into a high speed brawl Weidman doesn’t have raw speed necessary. A fighter who could close the distance and begin swinging with Weidman can essentially shut the champion’s offense down by sheer volume.
Challenger: Luke Rockhold
I love Luke Rockhold. I’ve called him the biggest threat to Chris Weidman even after his loss to Vitor Belfort and my prediction has shown truer and truer with every fight.
Just like Lyoto Machida, Luke Rockhold has a fantastic left body kick. That’s where the similarities end.
Rockhold is a long, gangly and aggressive fighter whose body kicks come at the end of combinations. Fighters who end combinations with kicks often see a disproportionate success because blocking a kick takes so much more commitment and preparation than blocking a punch. It’s the reason that the Dutch kickboxing system of punching into leg kicks made Rob Kaman and Ernesto Hoost into superstars.
Plus Rockhold likes pairing his liver kick with a high kick as soon as the opponent’s hand starts dropping (condolences, Mr. Bisping), a double threat that Cro Cop paired alongside his left straight to enter into MMA mythos.
While his top game is terrifying, it’s on his back where Rockhold really impresses me. Jacare Souza is by far the best submission artist in the middleweight division (most likely the best in the UFC behind Demian Maia) but despite grounding Rockhold multiple times during their 5 round Strikeforce affair he couldn’t do anything with it. Jacare held him down for extended periods of time but despite his unbelievable grappling prowess he was unable to even remotely threaten the challenger.
As for the hand speed, Rockhold is a mixed bag. He is more than capable of unleashing combinations with his hands but as a lengthy fighter he can’t generate the type of speed of some of his stumpier counterparts. That being said, sometimes it works anyway.
Here’s a clip of all three of the aforementioned qualities in action. Rockhold lands a beautiful body kick, followed by a barrage of punches before sprawling a takedown and punishing Jacare for even trying.
If you gave Luke Rockhold the hand speed of Vitor Belfort I’d say he’d be a safe bet for an upset. As it stands, I would still give the hands to Weidman whose smooth and effortless combinations leave very little openings to counter. If Rockhold walks down Weidman, he has the advantage. If Weidman walks down Rockhold, it switches to the champion’s favor.
It comes down to initiative.
I think Rockhold is a safe bet to be an upset. I refused to get on the hype train for either Machida or Belfort (both which have shown to be mixed bags on the big stage) but I am a firm Rockhold believer. He has better cardio and kicks than Weidman and if he gets his hands going can truly lay down a beating.
We will see come December 12th.
