It’s not uncommon to see a championship belt change hands. But watching a champion get outclassed, to lose in their prime because the man across from them was so much better is utterly shocking. At UFC 173 TJ Dillashaw made Renan Barao look like he belonged on the undercard rather than defending his belt.
This Saturday we will get the long awaited grudge match for the UFC bantamweight belt. For free on Fox Sports 1 no less!
But the question on everyone’s mind is does Renan Barao even stand a chance? There are three questions we must ask ourselves to get to the bottom of that conundrum.
1) Lucky Punch or Preview of Beating to Come?
I’m not making excuses for Barao, but it doesn’t take a medic to observe that the Dillashaw overhand right which floored the champion in round 1 affected him considerably. Concussion or not there are certain kind of skull rattling blows that make fighters look like they’re wading through water for the rest of the fight. We saw it when Cain Velasquez floored Junior Dos Santos in their first rematch at which point the champion fought the rest of the fight like he’d been woken up from a particularly deep sleep.
Even if the punch didn’t physically affect Barao, getting knocked down and almost finished in the first round is traumatic. If you got mugged first thing in the morning on a street you’d lived on for years you’d completely change how you acted as well.
While there was only 4 minutes before the fight changing punch, it’s worth noting that before Dillashaw connected the fight was very even. The challenger had been moving laterally and throwing kicks from both stances while Barao was keeping his feet beneath him while throwing out 1-2 combinations with an occasional leg kick.
Did the haymaker set up TJ’s confidence or was he simply biding his time in the first round anyway? It’s a question that is worth asking, I personally lean towards the former.
2) TJ Dillashaw: King or Kryptonite?
I’ve never subscribed to the Barao hype train like many others had; he simply looked too awkward when forced out of his comfort zone for my taste. But the Brazilian ex-champion sports a 33-2 record with finishes over some of the best bantamweight fighters on the planet and frankly I don’t know how much better Dillashaw can be than that.
Dillashaw showed up in the best form of his life against Barao but the fact is that he didn’t really do all that much different from his other fights. Watch Dillashaw throw a quick 1-2 and then weave out to a superior angle, forcing Rafael Assunção to pivot instead of returning fire.
Rather reminiscent no? But while Dillashaw’s split decision loss can be debated there’s no question he was nowhere as effective against Assunção as he was against Barao. Even Joe Soto did markedly better than Barao until the fifth round and (no offense) he is nowhere near as good a fighter as the former champion.
Dillashaw wasn’t some superhuman sent down to humble Barao; he was simply the champion’s worst match up.
Barao is wonderful at a distance in which he can fire off piston jabs and straights while chewing up his opponent’s lead leg. Conversely he is awful and I mean awful when forced to trade. His chin comes up, his hands drop as he wings punches and sometimes he even leans over at the waist (gag).
There’s real power but far too many openings to counter. When he winged his punches Dillashaw would slip, circle and weave while land his own shots. Barao would wing punches in response, so Dillashaw would move and crack him and the vicious cycle continued until a new champion was crowned.
Not a GoAT in the making, just the antidote to a lethal but specific poison.
3) Evolve New Skills or Cut Down on Mistakes?
It’s not easy for a great, experienced fighter to all of a sudden change the way they do things.
Look at BJ Penn, arguably the greatest lightweight in history. For his third fight with Frankie Edgar he trained at Nova União and, predictably, came out looking like Renan Barao. Unfortunately, extensive genetic testing has confirmed that BJ Penn isn’t Renan Barao and as a result he fought like garbage.
I don’t know how feasible it is that, after 35 fights, Barao will tighten up his combination punching; he’s just not that kind of fighter. But if Dillashaw’s other opponents are any indication, Renan Barao already possesses the necessary skills to beat him.
Assunção had great success against Dillashaw defensively because he understood when to pivot, block, and retreat. He bit on Dillashaw’s feints as well but unlike Barao he simply brought his hands up and took a half step backwards. When he did throw punches he did it with very little wind up, focusing on connection percentage rather than power.
Watch Assunção retreat from a Dillashaw feint and tag Dillashaw with a short, smooth left hook as the latter level changes in one fluid sequence.
In another noteworthy sequence, Dillashaw takes an angle and throws the body kick which Assunção catches then counters with a short straight. He senses the change in momentum and stalks Dillashaw, missing with an uppercut that he never over-commits to. Dillashaw tries to flurry again and Assunção simply moves his head and retreats.
Dillashaw’s punches were coming in at beautiful angles but they’re no good against an opponent who isn’t there anymore.
The effect Assunção’s simple strategy had on Dillashaw was remarkable. Dillashaw couldn’t easily find angles against Assunção and when he did the Brazilian pivoted with him with his hands held high limiting the damage he could do. He couldn’t afford to dart in so often when his combinations had a decent chance of whiffing or meeting a stiff counter shot.
So Dillashaw’s output was stifled. When his opponent’s work rate dropped, Assunção was able to walk him down and throw leather on his own terms, connecting with a decent number of heavy strikes and leg kicks.
Those are all skills Barao possesses. Instead of winging punches in response to a Dillashaw combination he can retreat back a step and/or pivot and tag him with straight punches. Eventually Dillashaw will have to temper his offense at which point Barao can begin snapping off the leg kicks that were noticeably absent in their first fight (and absolutely necessary against a movement based fighter).
If Barao can suddenly become a technical combination striker then more power to him. It’s a far better idea to simply polish the tools he already has.
Renan Barao looked slow in his win over Mitch Gagnon but he was also jittery and his confidence in tatters from his TKO loss to Dillashaw and the media circus Dana White initiated against him. If he makes minor changes, however, there’s a very good chance he can win a decision against his division nemesis.
If he shows up like the Renan Barao of old, expect another entertaining but one sided beating.
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