In terms of shallowness, the UFC heavyweight division is rivaled only by the women’s bantamweight division and that is not a flattering comparison. So when it comes to title challengers, I completely understand some shenanigans.
Andrei Arlovski vs. Frank Mir at UFC 191 is one of those shenanigans. On the surface, this fight will be billed as “two heavyweight veterans on unexpected win streaks” to determine who challenges for the title next.
Technically it’s true.
Frank Mir is on a two fight win streak both by virtue of first round knockouts. Andrei Arlovski is on a three fight win streak that includes a shellacking of Travis Browne. These fighters were slated to meet way back yonder and now the match is finally happening!
But knowledgeable MMA fans are extraordinarily skeptical of this portrayal and have good reason to be.
With all due respect to the heavyweight hulk, a win over Silva doesn’t mean anything anymore. Many fans say his PED use was all that kept him relevant but the truth is that he wasn’t very good to begin with. The most dangerous fighters he ever faced in Strikeforce (no, past his prime Fedor doesn’t count) were Fabricio Werdum and Daniel Cormier and both handled him rather well by simply sticking and moving. Travis Browne and Alistair Overeem were both beating him before an injury and stupidity (respectively) led to their knockouts.
All a win over him confirms is that Arlovski and Mir can throw punches while moving their feet.
Now Todd Duffee, at one point, was actually a pretty good fighter. Against Mike Russow he was using angles and combinations in ways that hadn’t been seen before. Then he immediately regressed in a way that makes me upset. Watch Duffee do the helicopter like he’s in the club.
Mind you, he STILL hurt Frank Mir recklessly swinging even while the latter moved his head.
Arlovski has at least beaten Travis Browne who has only lost to Silva because of an injury and Fabricio Werdum (Or a superhero masquerading as Fabricio Werdum anyway). He proved that he can still withstand a heavyweight punch, that his right hand is accurate and opportunistic as ever, and that he only needs one leg to beat someone half to death.
When it comes down to it, this match up makes no sense.
Andrei Arlovski is exciting, popular, and sits on top of a short list of viable title contenders. As much as I hate “protecting” contenders (checks under the bed for Conor McGregor) the UFC heavyweight division has reached that point. It’s why Junior Dos Santos can’t buy a legitimate contender to save his life; there aren’t enough contenders to make it worth sacrificing one to the unequivocal no. 2 in the division.
So why take a dynamic knockout contender and put him against Frank Mir, a name fighter who is on a two knockout streak but hasn’t proven that he can take anyone elite? Is there a chance Frank Mir genuinely works his submission game and earns a win the old fashioned way? Sure, but it’s far more likely that he’ll need a puncher’s chance against Arlovski’s newfound but still somewhat suspect chin.
If Mir loses, the title picture remains intact but what does the UFC do with him? After two easy wins he would have lost (likely by knockout) to the first elite fighter he faced there’s very little place for him to go. Unless Stefan Struve loses to Antonio Nogueira or Mark Hunt is willing to step up, there will be no viable matches left for him. The UFC will have wasted Frank Mir’s possible resurgence by putting him against stiff competition too early.
But if Mir WINS, then the UFC has a REAL problem on its hands.
While Mir is an opportunistic submission fighter, the fact remains that if he can’t score a sub from the bottom he’s utterly helpless. Alistair Overeem and Brock Lesnar (in the second fight) were able to hold Mir down and simply pound on him while avoiding submissions. Both Shane Carwin and Daniel Cormier dominated Mir in the clinch against the cage because he genuinely doesn’t seem to understand how to defend or escape the position. His head movement and knockout power are nice, but the faster Junior Dos Santos knocked him out by punching his navel out until his hands dropped at which point he went upstairs.
Mir hasn’t shown us that he’s fixed these fundamental problems and with all due respect to the fighter who got me into MMA, I wouldn’t bet that he has.
With those flaws in mind, look at the murderer’s row that would face him. The champion is Fabricio Werdum, his BJJ equivalent and leagues ahead on the feet. Vying for the contender spot is Stipe Miocic, Cain Velasquez, Alistair Overeem and of course offensive genius/defensive dullard Junior Dos Santos.
Do you think Mir, even in his “resurgent” state, has any business being in the cage with those fighters?
Even more worrying is what happens to Arlovski. I’m proud of the Belarusian banger for rediscovering his right hand and avoiding damage but we can’t depend on it forever. With a loss he’ll be forced to face fighters like Mark Hunt or the loser of the prospective JDS vs. Overeem match up, all of whom can retire his chin forever with their frightening power.
The best case scenario is that Arlovski keeps his title shot and Mir loses any momentum he had and every opportunity to build. The worst case is that Arlovski is put into a dangerous situation from where he may never recover and Mir goes on to fight for a title he probably won’t win and definitely won’t keep.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think I am.
I get the appeal of two name-brand finishers in a shallow division fighting for a title shot, but if the UFC really wanted the maximum yield out of their heavyweights they wouldn’t have let this match up even cross their minds. I am sincerely hoping that because this fight isn’t set in stone yet, the UFC regains its senses and matches Mir against a different fighter.
I’m personally leaning towards Rothwell who is surging, dangerous but won’t hold a large edge in athleticism.
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