Did Max Holloway Throw a Wrench in Dana White’s Plans?

Not since the anti-climax of the legendary Rashad Evans-Rampage Jackson feud has a main event disappointed so many. But unlike the most disappointing grudge match in history, the outcome of Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira was truly out of either fighter’s hands. Watching Oliveira meekly hold out a hand while grasping what (at the time) seemed to be his throat was cringe inducing.

Holloway, young and classy talent that he is, decided to call out Frankie Edgar when questioned about a possible title shot saying:

“People keep saying this might be a title contention shot. But I believe one guy deserves it, and that’s Frankie Edgar. So UFC, why not (do) UFC Hawaii. Max Holloway (vs.) Frankie Edgar (at) Aloha Stadium.”

In a stacked division like featherweight, deferring 1^st contender status is a ballsy move and we should have nothing but admiration for that. Plus it’s not like Holloway is brown-nosing; Frankie Edgar is undoubtedly the no. 1 contender for the featherweight division and was even before Conor McGregor’s carefully guided rise to an interim shot. Besides potential GoAT Jose Aldo, Edgar has never lost a fight at featherweight and has two wins against BJ Penn in a weight class that’s arguably above him. The fight simply makes sense.

Which puts Dana White in a pickle.

Conor McGregor is an extraordinarily talented fighter, to the point that I give him a 50/50 shot against Jose Aldo (FYI, I used to have him as the favorite). He is defensively sublime, understands spacing, is incredibly economical on offense and has shown the ability to adapt to his opponent’s styles to a degree not often seen in any combat sport. If there was one striker I’d recommend a student study, I would put McGregor ahead of Aldo by a long shot. I say all this because I don’t want to seem like I’m bashing McGregor when I say he is undoubtedly being protected by Dana White.

There’s simply too much evidence to refute. The convenient dearth of wrestlers on his record in a division often ruled by them, the usage of Frankie Edgar to stop the streaking Cub Swanson while McGregor skated by on Dennis Siver and the choice of an unprepared Chad Mendes rather than Edgar for an interim title match are all too suspicious.  In hindsight, we can agree that McGregor is a worthy interim champion but there’s no question that he has skipped over his most dangerous match ups.

The implicit feeling among many fans (including Holloway itself, it seems) was that the winner of the main event would go on to challenge the winner of Aldo vs. McGregor and that Edgar was relegated featherweight purgatory. But with such an early ending to the fight in which no sort of dominance was established, it’s hard to definitively say Holloway is the no. 1 contender even if he was the favorite for a reason. If subjective evaluation of skill was all that was needed for title shots then no. 1 contender bouts wouldn’t even be needed but that’s not how this sport works.

By calling out Frankie Edgar and publicly deeming him the true no. 1 contender, even that choice is out of Dana White’s hands.

If Edgar wins (which he very well might), the UFC brass will have no choice but to match him up against McGregor should he beat Jose Aldo. And despite being a champion tier fighter, it is it bears remembering that Chad Mendes was able to catch McGregor’s kicks, lunge in with punches and slice him with elbows on a two week training camp. Frankie Edgar may not have haymaker power but he can do everything Mendes does and a whole lot more. It’s not a stretch to think that the kicks McGregor used to wind Mendes or keep Diego Brandao from moving laterally will be caught and then used to drag him to the ground where Edgar will maul him. That’s not to say McGregor can’t beat Edgar, but he is a far tougher match up than Aldo ever would be.

Even if Dana wished to avoid putting Edgar in a position to kill his cash cow there’s no viable alternative for Holloway.

Ricardo Lamas is coming off a knockout loss to Chad Mendes who, in turn, just fought for the title a third time unsuccessfully.  Cub Swanson is on a two fight losing streak while Jeremy Stephens is 1-2 in his last 3 and struggled mightily against Dennis Bermudez before knocking him out. No fighter underneath Bermudez is even remotely suitable for a top 5 fighter; it may have worked once for McGregor but so many pundits and fans called BS afterwards that even Dana wouldn’t try it again.

The Oliveira rematch also has issues. Depending on the severity of the injury (Oliveira needed a neck brace), Holloway may have to sit out to wait for a rematch when he himself could be ready to fighter again in a matter of weeks. Plus since he’s a marketable who publicly named Frankie Edgar the no. 1 contender, Dana will need to figure out what to do with him since the same dearth of opponents that applies to Holloway applies to Edgar as well. Dana cannot ignore Holloway or Edgar, cannot move Holloway past Edgar, doesn’t have viable alternatives for either fighter. His hands are bound.

The best case scenario for Dana White is that Max Holloway beats Frankie Edgar and McGregor avoids the best MMA wrestler should he win his unification bout with Aldo. Even then, I argue that a striker who can get past Edgar is a way bigger threat than Edgar himself.

Either way, UFC fans are about to get treated to a proper #1 contender bout.

It just can’t be the one Dana White wanted.

Siri Karri

Siri is a mixed martial arts and video game aficionado, but only had the physique for the latter. Proudly goofy and reluctantly pudgy, he tackles writing in the same way he tackles a burger; enthusiastically but with adult supervision.